November 05, 2002


ON A LIMB: Yes, I'm going to make election predictions. After the election, I want to mock people who made ridiculous predictions, and I can't really do so without going on record myself.

Arkansas: Pryor (D gain) Isn't it ironic that Hutchinson was hurt by marital infidelity (with a staffer who later became his second wife) in the land of Clinton?

Minnesota: Coleman (R gain) Tough call, but I think the memorial/rally and the debate might send Mondale back into deep-freeze. Recounts-- and litigation over absentee ballots-- very likely.

South Carolina: Graham (R hold)

Colorado: Strickland (D gain) Allard's numbers are pretty weak for an incumbent. Governor Owen's re-election will have some coattails, but my guess is not enough.

Missouri: Talent (R gain) Talent takes office as soon as the election is certified, which under Missouri law could be the next day, but even if there isn't a recount battle, there might be a fight about when to certify the election (the Democratic Governor may drag his feet). If the Dems don't net a loss, but Talent wins, (and/or Coleman wins, if he's going to take office in mid-November, which is still unclear), expect a nasty fight over whether to have a lame-duck session and whether to pass an organizing resolution if there is one.

South Dakota: Thune (R gain) This is a coin flip. Literally-- a Canadian tooney I grabbed out of the foreign coin jar on this desk came up heads. If it had been tales, I'd've called for Johnson. Has Charlie Cook tried this?

Georgia: Cleland (D hold) This will be close, but I think the Chambliss upset is still a long shot.

New Hampshire: Sununu (R hold) Shaheen's momentum has been hyped enough that a mini-backlash is possible.

Tennessee: Alexander (R hold)

Iowa: Harkin (D hold)

New Jersey: Lautenberg (D hold) Hey, kids, do you like to win? Try cheating!

Texas: Cornyn (R hold)

North Carolina: Dole (R hold) Josh Marshall says, "I really sense that... [either Texas or North Carolina] is going to come out Democratic." I really sense he's wrong.

Lousiana: There will be a run-off; tentatively, I'll predict Landrieu wins the run-off (that would be a D hold), but things can change a lot in a month.

So, assuming the Landrieu victory, that gives us a net gain of 1 for the Republicans, leaving the senate 50 to 49+1, with Cheney as tie-breaker (that's in January-- after the lame-duck confusion and before the potential Lincoln Chafee switch). A couple days ago I was thinking the Democrats would hold the Senate and possibly gain a seat or two, but the late polls showing a national Republican surge have intrigued me enough that I changed my New Hampshire pick, and the coin said Thune. So there you go.

Posted by John Tabin at November 5, 2002 04:32 AM