October 20, 2003

Out of Iowa

Joe Lieberman and Wes Clark are skipping the Iowa Caucuses, focusing on the later primaries that they have a better shot at. It will be interesting to see the polls out of Iowa in a week or so; if Gephardt picks up the handful of likely caucus-goers who were leaning toward Lieberman and/or Clark, he'll be in a much more comfortable position; if not, Dean will gain an edge. The dynamics in the middle of the pack might also change; a third-place showing in Iowa could be valuable for either Kerry or Edwards.

With Dean as frontrunner and strategic shifts designed to grab the mantle of anti-Dean, this primary race may become quite divisive-- which, as this Larry Sabato analysis from earlier this month explains, would not bode well for the nominee.

Posted by John Tabin at October 20, 2003 01:48 AM

I think a divisive campaign is good for the Republicans and bad for the Democrats. I think the national media is going to build into an anti-Bush frenzy that has never been seen before which could hurt the Republicans. I will never forget someone telling me many years ago that she wasn't going to vote for Reagan because she didn't want war. This was before Carter had begun to campaign and she told me that Chronkite had indicated Reagan's bellicosity. Most of the national media is already playing along with the lie that Bush said there was an "imminent" threat.

Posted by: lee tabin at October 20, 2003 08:58 AM