November 15, 2003

Louisiana Prediction

Larry Sabato and RealClearPolitics both predict a slim victory for Bobby Jindal. I concur.

While Blanco has the momentum in the razor-thin late polls, Jindal, thanks to his complexion and the surprise endorsement by Ray Nagin, the black Democratic mayor of New Orleans, is getting 15% of the black vote in some polls, twice the normal margin for a Lousiana Republican.

In A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat, Zell Miller writes:

For many years now in the South, the magic formula for the Democratic nominee to win in a general election against a Republican is to get 40 percent of the white vote and 90 percent of the African-American vote. Increasingly over the years it has been easier to get 90 percent of the African-American vote than 40 percent of the white vote. I believe that the margin of African-American votes for the Democrats is going to change soon. It only has to change a fraction in the South to make a huge difference.
Louisiana's open-primary system and fluid party loyalty seperates it somewhat from other Southern states, but the basic point remains: when a Republican peels away a portion of the black vote, it makes it significantly more difficult for the Democrat to win, even with an excellent get out the vote operation.

UPDATE 11:30 PM: Well, I got that one wrong. More analysis here after I get a chance to look at the demographic data on the exit polls.

Posted by John Tabin at November 15, 2003 04:14 PM