January 19, 2004

Caucus Night

Don't miss Mickey Kaus today; he's got lots on the Iowa caucuses, and their inherrent absurdity.

Predictions? A narrow Dean victory, credited heavily to first-time caucus-goers. I have very low confidence in this prediction. I won't even take a stab at second, third, and forth; I expect the bunching to be very close, at least at the beginning of the night (i.e., in the entrance poll taken by the National Election Pool. There may be a breakaway in the final tally.

It's worth noting that Dean is the only one who will retain a shot at the nomination even without a surprisingly strong finish in Iowa. By surprisingly strong, I mean, for Kerry, first or second, and for Edwards, strong third or higher. Gephardt must come in first to continue.

Posted by John Tabin at January 19, 2004 03:29 PM