January 19, 2004

Dean's Hype-Management Failure

Dean's people were saying that he was being underpolled. The rumor (later confirmed) was that Dean's "hard-count"-- the names the campaign had collected of their confirmed supporters-- was quite large, and 65% new caucusgoers (thus hard to poll). That's why I predicted a Dean victory-- if the Deanies weren't confident, why would they take the risk of raising expectations?

It turns out their confidence was misplaced. Kerry's hard-count was just as big (they were both around 40,000, if I heard correctly on TV), and he did well among first-time caucusgoers.

Dean wasn't acting disappointed at his speech tonight. He was acting like a pro wrestler-- screaming like a madman that they won't give up in any state. He may be serious. The Deanies have made clear that, to a large extent, they believe their own hype.

Posted by John Tabin at January 19, 2004 11:40 PM