January 30, 2004

Kerry'd Away

A raft of polls suggest next week will bring a good Mini-Tuesday for John Kerry.

First among equals, of course, is Zogby, who shows insurmountable leads for Kerry in both Arizona and Missouri; the Missouri results match those of Survey USA and American Research Group. ARG also shows Zogby leading in Delaware, and a local outfit shows him set to win the North Dakota caucuses.

Wes Clark leads Kerry in Oklahoma, according to Zogby, by 8 points, and Kerry's in a dead heat-- 24% to 25%-- with John Edwards in South Carolina. My sense is that Edwards is the only one who can possibly stop Kerry at this point, unless Clark suddenly and magically grows significantly as a candidate. Edwards, by his own admission, needs to win in South Carolina to continue. If Edwards pulls that off-- and it's a big if, given that Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Kerry is not fully factored into the three-day Zogby poll-- he's arguably enough in better shape if Kerry wins Oklahoma: A three man race heading into Super Tuesday between Edwards, Clark, and Kerry favors Kerry more heavily than a two-man race between Kerry and Edwards.

The one X-factor is the delegate race: Dean appears to be trying to force a brokered convention. A plausible fight for the nomination is unlikely to come down to the convention floor, though some trouble-making by the Deanies is quite possible.

Any way you slice it, though, Kerry is probably going to top the Democrats' ticket. I'd say the likelyhood of a non-Kerry nominee is down to about 1 in 5.

Posted by John Tabin at January 30, 2004 03:09 PM
Comments

How can you watch Bush on MTP and not come away wondering how someone so stupid and uninformed and unable to learn anything ever became President of the USA. He's had three years to practice answers and I think he's just too lazy. I know deep down you wish you didn't have to defend someone as inept as this.

Posted by: Sean Fahy at February 12, 2004 03:26 PM

Far be it from me to question your vast psychic ability, but I don't "have to defend" anyone. I calls 'em as I sees 'em. The minimum requirement was that the Prez not make news with a major gaffe, and he met that. The goal was not to win your vote-- and I don't care if he answered everything smoothly and brilliantly, that wasn't gonna happen, was it?

Posted by: John Tabin at February 13, 2004 01:20 AM