January 31, 2004

Not Over Yet

Zogby has good news for John Edwards this morning. The South Carolina tracking poll shows a 4-point lead for Edwards over Kerry-- just inside the +/-4.1% margin for error, but trending toward Edwards since yesterday. Perhaps the effect on the black vote of Jim Clyburn's endorsement of Kerry is partially neutralized by Wes Clark's attack from the left on affirmative action, yet another issue that John Kerry has been on both sides of.

Speaking of Clark, the General's lead in Oklahoma is narrowing, which may also be good for Edwards. As I wrote yesterday, Edwards is in better shape in a two-man race against Kerry, which won't emerge if Clark gets through Mini-Tuesday with a win. Kerry's grip on the probably nomination is looking less firm than it did 24 hours ago. [If you were Mickey Kaus, you might well invoke the "Feiler Faster Thesis" here.-ed. If I were Mickey Kaus, I would be known for the "-ed" schtick. I'm not. Scram.]

As for Dean, it's possible that he could get through Tuesday without picking up new delegates, which makes convention-floor mischief much less likely.

We'll see tomorrow if these trends hold. (Besides the new Zogby tracking tomorrow morning, we'll also get an ARG update in the afternoon.) I should have new poll analysis here every day through Tuesday.

Posted by John Tabin at January 31, 2004 08:36 AM