February 03, 2004


Today's the day. First of all, Kerry will win in North Dakota, New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri, and Delaware. If he should lose any of those (not likely), then much of the analysis that follows will go out the window.

In South Carolina, Edwards has the edge in all the polls. Michael Graham thinks Edwards will win, and that the victory will prove irrelevant. I agree on the first point, but I'm not sold on the second; Kerry may coast to a coronation, but if not then Edwards could be well-positioned to emerge as the alternative to Kerry (or at least as Kerry's obvious choice for running-mate).

Oklahoma is especially interesting. Clark has been slightly ahead of Kerry in the polls, but if Kathryn Jean Lopez's exit poll data is correct, then it could be Edwards, not Kerry, who passes Clark. (Most polls put Edwards in third, but SurveyUSA showed a very close second; SUSA's "3-way foto finish" analysis could prove correct.) Did I say Edwards could emerge as the viable anti-Kerry? If he takes SC and OK, he almost certainly will.

Dean won't be a factor today. I'll take another look once upcoming races jump to the forefront, but my guess is we'll find him still dead.

Posted by John Tabin at February 3, 2004 02:23 PM

This blog is pretty interesting, will add a bookmark, thanks.

Posted by: yaoi at September 25, 2004 05:40 PM