October 08, 2004

It Will Be Close

Andrew Sullivan is arguing that the election will be a landslide one way of the other, and bolstering his case with historical data from an emailer suggesting that all incumbents' re-election bids, except for Wilson's and Adams's, have been decided by margins of 10% or more.

That's not true; Carter beat Ford by just 2.1%. Something tells me that (as Dave Weigel suggested when we were chatting this afternoon) the campaign of a President who took office without a huge mandate, and who faced a weak opponent bolstered primarily by a climate of heavy anti-Republican sentiment on the left, might be somewhat relevant to today's contest.

It's going to be a squeaker.

Posted by John Tabin at October 8, 2004 04:16 PM