November 08, 2005

Polling Place

I survey the data and lay out my Election Day predictions in today's AmSpec column.

Posted by John Tabin at November 8, 2005 12:18 AM

Good column, and good conclusion. A lot can happen in a year. According to Lou DuBose's Karl Rove study "Boy Genius," it was the GOP's lousy performance in the 2001 elections (the 9/11 poll bounce helped Bloomberg, but no other Republicans) that scared him straight into developing the policy and GOTV strategies he'd use in 2002.

I agree with you on all the race-to-race predictions. I'll be most curious about New Jersey - Republicans have been talking up that race for months, even when Forrester was down 15 points, as if they had some secret ace up their sleeves. I don't know what it could possibly be, given that Republicans only win New Jersey when white suburban voters get angrier about taxes than social issues, and Forrester spent the last week talking about his opponent's family problems.

Posted by: Dave Weigel at November 8, 2005 05:48 AM