November 25, 2003

Pure Evil

My take on condemned murderer-terrorist John Allen Muhammad is now up at the Spectator Online.

Sorry about neglecting the blog lately, but the freelance gigs pay better.

Posted by John Tabin at 01:06 AM | Comments (2)

November 18, 2003

Louisiana Post-Mortem

The analysis of Louisiana exit-poll demographics I promised the other day is now available, in the form of my newest piece at the American Spectator Online.

Posted by John Tabin at 12:31 AM | Comments (1)

November 15, 2003

Louisiana Prediction

Larry Sabato and RealClearPolitics both predict a slim victory for Bobby Jindal. I concur.

While Blanco has the momentum in the razor-thin late polls, Jindal, thanks to his complexion and the surprise endorsement by Ray Nagin, the black Democratic mayor of New Orleans, is getting 15% of the black vote in some polls, twice the normal margin for a Lousiana Republican.

In A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat, Zell Miller writes:

For many years now in the South, the magic formula for the Democratic nominee to win in a general election against a Republican is to get 40 percent of the white vote and 90 percent of the African-American vote. Increasingly over the years it has been easier to get 90 percent of the African-American vote than 40 percent of the white vote. I believe that the margin of African-American votes for the Democrats is going to change soon. It only has to change a fraction in the South to make a huge difference.
Louisiana's open-primary system and fluid party loyalty seperates it somewhat from other Southern states, but the basic point remains: when a Republican peels away a portion of the black vote, it makes it significantly more difficult for the Democrat to win, even with an excellent get out the vote operation.

UPDATE 11:30 PM: Well, I got that one wrong. More analysis here after I get a chance to look at the demographic data on the exit polls.

Posted by John Tabin at 04:14 PM | Comments (0)

November 13, 2003

Hobnobbing in Washington

Jeremy Lott writes, of last night's American Spectator dinner,

Highlights: Met John Tabin...
Right back atcha, Jeremy!

I love events like this; it's always fun to put some faces to bylines. I met most of the Spectatorites-- Lott; interns Katherine Ruddy, Theodora Blanchfield, and Shawn Macomber; Bob Tyrell, George Neumayr, Wlady Pleszczynski (which is Polish for "how's that spelled?"), and Ben Stein, who MC'd the evening with off-color jokes. The room exuded the dorky glamour of Washington, filled as it was with people like Former Congressman Bob Barr, Former Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick, Washington Times editor Wes Pruden, Solicitor General Ted Olson, and Underscecretary of State John Bolton. Bolton gave the keynote address, on WMD proliferation; if you've seen him on C-SPAN, then you know that his comments were incisive but his delivery made the most important things in the world sound dull as dirt. Senator Zell Miller gave a much better speech, touching on topics in his new book, A National Party No More: The Conscience of a Conservative Democrat, which he signed in the lobby afterwards. (Did you know he's missing most of his left index finder? Search for "As a child" here to find the story behind it.)

From the "I am oblivious" file: I exchanged business cards (I'd just had mine printed and was handing them out like party favors) with Bob Metcalfe, who's name I thought I'd vaguely recognized, possibly from a byline, but wasn't sure. I looked him up, and found that I probably had seen his byline, some time after he founded 3Com, which was after he invented Ethernet (you might say, to paraphrase Al Gore, that he took the initiative in creating the Internet). Oh, that Bob Metcalfe.

Posted by John Tabin at 11:38 AM | Comments (0)

November 12, 2003

The Good Kind of Busy

Sorry for the light posting lately, but I've been busy. More here tomorrow night, probably.

Posted by John Tabin at 02:16 PM | Comments (0)

November 11, 2003

Three Hundred Thousand

You may have seen this report over the weekend, but have you thought about how many people 300,000 dead human beings really is? Tony of Trojan Horseshoes has a suggestion: think of Tampa being obliterated. Or, click here for a visual illustration of 300,000.

Posted by John Tabin at 01:18 AM | Comments (1)

November 10, 2003

For Your Amusement and Edification

Whack-a-Pol.

Posted by John Tabin at 11:42 PM | Comments (1)

November 05, 2003

Three for Three

My calls on Kentucky, Mississippi, and Philadelphia all proved correct.

For those keeping score, with the California Recall and the 2002 Senate races, my all time record for election-day-morning predictions is now 16-3.

Posted by John Tabin at 01:50 AM | Comments (1)

November 04, 2003

Election Predictions

I expect good news for Republicans tonight: Ernie Fletcher will win the governor's race in Kentucky, and Haley Barbour will win in Mississippi. On the other hand, national Democrats' unusual efforts (second item) on behalf of Philadelphia mayor John Street are likely to pay off with a victory.

The really interesting race, though, is the November 15 run-off for Lousiana governor. If it were held today, Bobby Jindal would probably win, but Senator John Breaux will be working hard for Kathleen Blanco in the home stretch-- the word is he'd like to retire, but only if a Democratic governor is appointing his successor. Stay tuned.

Posted by John Tabin at 01:42 AM | Comments (0)